Citizens in the Netherlands are preparing to possibly exchange the most conservative government in recent memory with a more centrist and commonsense alliance during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for October 29.
Early legislative elections were triggered after the collapse of the previous government in the summer, when rightwing figure the Freedom party leader pulled his PVV from an increasingly fractious and largely ineffective governing alliance.
Wilders' party had finished shockingly first in the 2023 election, and after prolonged talks formed a unstable multi-party rightwing coalition with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, NSC party and center-right VVD.
However, Wilders' coalition partners considered him too toxic for the premier position, which ultimately went to a ex-security head. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic polemicist who has required security detail for two decades, began criticizing from the sidelines.
Wilders finally caused the coalition breakup on June 3 after his allies declined to adopt a radical 10-point anti-immigration plan that included deploying the army to guard frontiers, rejecting all refugee applicants, closing most refugee hostels and sending home all Syria nationals.
Although backing of the PVV has declined, polls indicate the rightwing, anti-Islam party is once more projected to secure the largest representation in parliament. But, major Netherlands political formations have collectively rejected entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
No fewer than sixteen political groups are predicted to enter parliament, but no single party is expected to win more than about one-fifth of the vote. Typically, the future Netherlands administration, typically an influential player on the EU and world stage, will be formed following coalition negotiations that could last months.
There are 150 representatives in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a government needs 76 mandates to achieve majority status. No individual group typically achieves this, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions for over 100 years.
Representatives are chosen quadrennially – sooner when administrations fail – through party-list system, based on an approved list of candidates in a country-wide district: any political group that wins 0.67% of the vote is guaranteed a seat.
Similar to much of Europe, Netherlands political life have been characterized in modern times by a sharp decline in backing of the traditional governing groups from the centre-right and left, whose electoral support has decreased from over four-fifths in the 1980s to barely two-fifths now.
In the Netherlands, this process has been paralleled by a spectacular proliferation of smaller parties: 27 are running this time, including a senior citizens' party, a young people's party, a party for animals, a party for universal basic income, and a sports-focused party.
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, projected to drop as many as eight of the thirty-seven mandates it secured last election. It proposes, among other measures, a total moratorium on refugee admissions, Ukrainian men to be sent home, the military to fight "street terrorists", and an termination to "progressive education" in schools.
Two political groups, of the centre-right and centre-left, are neck-and-neck after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Netherlands government from the late 1970s to the early 90s, and again in the start of the millennium, but dropped to only five mandates in the last election.
Nevertheless, under its young leader, its promising new figure, who entered politics just recently, the party has recovered strongly with a campaign emphasizing the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a commitment of "normal, civilised politics". It is projected for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the environmentalist party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is anticipated to become a complete unification, is projected to secure comparable seats, according to polling averages.
Headed by the seasoned ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, it has made constructing additional housing its biggest priority, and has controversially included a net migration cap of between 40,000 and 60,000 people annually in its platform.
Three other parties look likely to be significant forces in the new parliament.
The liberal-progressive D66 is projected to gain seats – securing as many as seventeen, from its current nine – under its straight-talking young leader, with a platform centred on housing (it plans to build 10 new cities) and an "individual basic benefit" for claimants.
The center-right VVD, the political group of the former prime minister (now Nato chief), is forecast to decline to at most 16 seats from its current 24, with its head, criticized of moving the group excessively rightward, held responsible for its decrease. It is promising business tax cuts and less welfare.
The anti-establishment, strictly rightwing JA21 is a breakaway group from another far-right party – the previously successful, now controversy-plagued Forum for Democracy – and seems to be benefiting from an exodus of voters from the three major rightwing parties. It could secure fourteen mandates.
In addition to the VVD and PVV, both remaining members in the ill-fated outgoing coalition, the farmer and centrist parties, are expected to lose out, with the NSC not even guaranteed legislative seats.
The primary concerns currently have been migration policy, with multiple – occasionally aggressive – protests against planned emergency reception centres for refugee applicants, the living expenses, and the perennial Dutch problem of accommodation (the country is lacking 400,000 homes).
Given the deeply divided state of Dutch politics, what alliances are actually possible is just as important as who wins the election (or in this case, more likely second, since no significant group will partner with Wilders, who insists he wants to head a minority administration).
After the election, MPs first appoint an informateur, who seeks out potential partnerships. Once a viable coalition has been found, a formateur, typically the head of the largest potential partner, begins discussing the formal coalition agreement. This can take months.
Various combinations look plausible, most involving a combination of political groups from moderate left and moderate right. The most probable, according to political analysts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus D66 and one or more smaller parties potentially including the conservative party.
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